As we await the availability of Apple Watch in April, I predict that Apple Watch will be a huge success, possibly selling more than 30 million in 2015 alone (avg expectation is for around 10-30 million). I base this prediction on my many years of watching Apple introduce new products and watching how consumer markets adopt new technologies.
There are four main reasons why Apple Watch in particular, and smart watches in general, are poised for rapid adoption:
1. Apple Design. Apple has once again introduced a product that is designed to get things done for you, not to show off technological innovations. While there are a few very interesting innovations, much like iPhone or iPad, the real innovation is the way Apple has put these together, and in the user interface. The watch is designed to help you get better usage out of your phone and to connect better, and more easily, with your friends and family. It makes it faster to get to appointments, reply to messages, and get information. And, it can be personalized far more than any other device.
2. Form Factor. I have watched the usefulness of apps increase dramatically as we have gone from webpages, to iPad apps, to iPhone apps. The smaller the space, the better designed the apps are and the more useful they are, from a consumer perspective (sorry advertisers, pop ups – not much room for you).
3. Wear-Factor. The fact that this device is actually worn makes it easier to use, not the least because it is always on you and it’s nearly impossible to misplace it . It is also the new version of “Always On”- it is real time, and it is ready fo ruse, saving you several steps compared to a smart phone. The small form factor is offset by brilliant design and the fact that most notifications and interactions don’t require the full phone screen. The use of NFC makes the Apple Watch more natural device to use, compared to the phone- no more searching pockets for your phone to check-in at the airport, or to pay a merchant, or perhaps very soon, get product information at a display – just point your wrist at the reader.
4. Comfort-Factor/Show Off-Factor. The watch is a device that we have worn since at least 19th century. (see picture below). Unlike the awkward Google Glass, there is nothing unusual or uncomfortable about wearing a smart watch; at the same time, you do get a chance to show off your savviness fashion, wealth, etc., in an acceptable manner (minor prediction: The $10k+ Edition Watch will become the new “Tesla” in Silicon Valley, as the must-have for the well-to-do)
I do get the shortcomings of the Apple Watch: short battery life, dependence on the iPhone, high price and lack of subsidy from telecoms, and possible long replacement cycles. But I think these will be overcome gradually. When I hear predictions of doom or the negative reviews of Apple Watch, I am reminded of very similar comments about the iPhone (now sold over 700 million). In fact, I have noted in my blog that iPhone had nothing new that you couldn’t do before, but it was the packaging and the way it got those things done that won the consumers. I believe the same will be true for Apple Watch.
by Mappin & Webb company (Life time: NA) - Original publication: Published 1915, in England Immediate source: http://www.vintagewatchstraps.com/wristwatches.html.