Think + Quick Thought - What if we escape a recession?


Quick Thought is our new rapid update piece on Think + companies, short-term events, and market commentary

  • Digital Health company Revero raises $5 M seed round from Think + Ventures, A16Z Scout, Goodwater Capital, and CapitalX.

  • Investment Management Platform Alternativ crossed $400 M in AUM in just under 9 months.

  • Uber teams up with Serve Robotics and Motional for autonomous food deliveries.


While layoffs have increased, the labor market is still tight and the GDP growth and consumer spending remain solid. The valuations in the private market are down by 20%-50% but still much better than the public markets. Given this picture, if the fed stops raising the rates, public markets are the first to take money in. As one hedge fund manager told me recently," the public market companies are so cheap there is little incentive for us to look at the private markets". However, if the economy does in fact have a soft landing, there will be a gush of money, that has been sitting on the sidelines, to both public and private markets. Both investors and the companies have already become so cautious and nervous ahead of the actual recession that we may well avoid a recession. If we also get lucky and inflation continues to come down, we can expect a market recovery in 1Q23. The Inflation Reduction act that finances the infrastructure investment may be partly put on hold after the midterm elections, but it will not be repealed. Investments in defense and cybersecurity, as well as energy infrastructure, are likely to be strong in 2023. It's time to stop being fixated on the half-empty part of the glass


 
  • Alternativ is an alternatives marketplace and investment management platform for wealth advisors. Spun out of Legalist, an ~$1B AUM asset manager, Alternativ is run by the former founders of Legalist and CS Disco (NYSE:Law). The team includes 2x YC, 1x ~$2B exit, 4x former founders.


  • Revero is an AI digital health startup on a mission to reverse chronic disease. The company has developed a subscription-based, virtual-care platform that combines precision nutrition, machine learning, and continuous personalized care through clinicians.


  • Serve Robotics is shaping the future of sustainable, self-driving delivery. The company designs develops and operates zero-emission robots that serve people in public spaces, starting with food delivery.

Let us know what you think.